PAKISTAN READER

Photo : The Nation

JI, IPP, and PTIP leaders step down

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #66
JI, IPP, and PTIP leaders step down following poor performance in elections
On 13 February, The News International reported that the heads of Istehkam Pakistan Party (IPP), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-Parliamentarians (PTIP), and Jammat-e-Islami (JI) stepped down following the failure of their parties in the elections. The Chairman of IPP, Jehangir Khan Tareen, was defeated in both the seats he was contesting from, and he thus decided to resign and “step away from politics altogether.” A former MNA, Jehangir gave his “gratitude to all the members of IPP” and promised to continue serving Pakistan “in a private capacity.” IPP President Abdul Aleem Khan said he was “deeply saddened” by this decision, adding that Jehangir would “always be the patron saint of IPP.” On 12 February, the Chairman of the PTIP, Pervez Khattak, quit from his position after the voters of Nowshera, KP, voted for other candidates. Khattak said that it was a “great honour” to have been elected by the people of Nowshera thrice as a provincial minister, chief minister, and federal defence minister. The former KP chief minister said that he would “retire from politics.” The central ameer of JI, Sirajul Haq, stepped down as the party did not win even one National Assembly seat. He himself lost in NA-6 to a PTI-backed independent. Haq acknowledged the JI’s efforts in the run-up to the  elections, and accepted “responsibility” for his “party’s failure in the general elections.” (“Siraj, Tareen, Khattak step down as party heads,” The News International, 13 February 2024)
 
JI ready for “long legal battle” to win back constituencies and speak up for democracy
On 12 February, the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) asserted that it would exercise its rights to resist the “rigged and manipulated results” by not backing out from a single vote it got in the elections, and win back all constituencies in which the MQM-P was “imposed through fake mandate.” The JI Karachi chief, Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman, said that the party would not abandon the people of Karachi as it had fought hard for the rights of the people. He added that one of the two Sindh seats won by the party would be given up, since it was reportedly won by a PTI-backed independent. Along these lines, Rehman stated: “We don’t want a single vote which is not ours and we won’t give up a single one which was ours.” He vowed that the JI would “keep exposing” those who had committed “crimes,” while “raising voice against the injustice.” Rehman additionally called on the PPP, PML-N, and MQM-P leaders to avoid “strengthening” the youth’s “disbelief in democracy and the system.” This decision was appreciated by the PTI, which said on X that “there is no existence of democracy without transparency.” (“JI vows to resist ‘rigged’ results at all forums,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
Nawaz Sharif still in the hunt for the slot of prime minister despite not winning majority
On 13 February, Dawn reported that Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif is aspiring to become the prime minister of Pakistan for the fourth time despite losing the majority in the 266 seats of the National Assembly.  On 12 February, a party insider asserted that ‘extensive deliberations’ were being held to decide upon a prime ministerial candidate, which would later be submitted before the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) for approval. The insider further said: “As of now, Nawaz Sharif has not been ruled out as a candidate for the PM’s slot. Since the PML-N has to lead the federal coalition, many within the Maryam Nawaz camp feel why shouldn’t (the elder Sharif) take the driving seat.” Adding to that, PML-N spokesperson Marriyum Aurangzeb said that the party is yet to finalize the prime ministerial candidate and refuted claims that Shehbaz Sharif had been picked instead of Nawaz. She further rubbished claims of a power sharing formula with the PPP. (Zulqernain Tahir, “Nawaz ‘still in the hunt’ for fourth PM stint,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
PTI to run for the posts of prime minister, speaker and others
On 12 February, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has decided to run for the posts of prime minister, speaker, and other positions, even as it denounced purported attempts to manipulate election results in order to turn its candidates’ victories into defeat.” The party said this was part of a malicious plot to drag the country into a deep “quagmire of political chaos and economic instability.” A party spokesperson told Dawn that the only inescapable democratic and constitutional method to steer the nation out of the current multifarious difficulties is to hold free, fair, and transparent elections. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), with its ‘incompetence and nefarious agenda’ is wasting this opportunity, the spokesperson said. Additionally, a party delegation also met the President Arif Alvi to raise the issue of ‘rigging.’ (Ikram Junaidi, “PTI to field candidates for speaker, PM slots,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
PTI constitutes “specialized committees” to strategize government formation at the Centre, Punjab and KP
On 12 February, a statement issued by the core committee of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), stated that with the rise of its independent candidates topping the general elections, the party is in the process of formulating a plan to form governments at the ‘Centre, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)’ respectively. The statement revealed that “specialized committees entrusted with the responsibility of devising strategies for government formation in these pivotal regions had been constituted.” PTI further assured that it would give the leadership to candidates with no criminal records. It is to be noted that the “embattled” party was able to win a total of 92 seats out of 266 in the National Assembly and 90 out of 112 in KP.  Separately, PTI leaders met President Dr Arif Alvi and informed him of “evident irregularities” during the recently concluded elections. The leaders further highlighted that despite PTI being denied a level playing field, it managed to secure more seats than the other parties. (“PTI strategies govt formation at Centre, Punjab, K-P,” The Express Tribune, 13 February 2024)
 
LHC rejects pleas against the polling results as inadmissible
On 13 February, The Express Tribune reported that 18 national and provincial constituency petitions contesting the election results were rejected by the Lahore High Court (LHC) as being inadmissible. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has been called before the High Courts in Peshawar and Karachi to address comparable challenges. Election-related cases have flooded courts around the country as many candidates are challenging preliminary results in an attempt to change the outcome. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-backed independents make up the majority of the challengers. High courts in Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar have heard several petitions challenging differences between Form 45 data and Form 47, which is issued by returning officers (ROs). Form 45 is the main document that lists the votes cast for each candidate by polling place, and Form 46 describes how ballots are handled. Ali Baqir Najafi heard the petitions in the LHC and after having heard the arguments, the court first reserved its decision, later announcing that the petitions were rejected because they were inadmissible. The contested results included the election triumphs of well-known individuals including Maryam Nawaz of the PML-N, Khawaja Asif, and Aun Chaudhry of the IPP. The court in its ruling instructed petitioners to seek remedies from the ECP. Following which the ECP would decide as per the Election Act whether to compile results with or without the applicant’s attendance. (Rana Yasif, “LHC dismisses 18 PTI pleas against election results,” The Express Tribune, 13 February 2024)
 
Protests against alleged rigging in elections enter their fourth consecutive day
On 12 February, the protests in Balochistan, Sindh and other parts of the region against the rigging in the general elections entered the fourth day. The political parties that participated include the National Party (NP), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (JUI), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), Balochistan National Party (Mengal), Pashtunkhwa Mili Awami Party (PkMAP) and PkNAP. While addressing the protest that happened in front of the deputy commissioner’s office in Quetta, the central leader of the NP Mir Kabeer Muhammad Shahi said: “Our protest will continue until justice is served. The central leader of PkMAP Abdul Rahim Ziaratwal said: “The ROs snatched our democratic right.” Meanwhile, PTI has also put forth strong allegations regarding three National Assembly and nine provincial assembly seats. (Syed Ali Shah, “Protests against ‘rigging’ continue,” The Express Tribune, 13 February 2024)
 
The US advises Pakistan to investigate claims relating to election irregularities
On 12 February, the US asserted that Pakistan should investigate the claims relating to election irregularities “through its legal system.” The US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller while answering a question said: “I don’t know what bodies are they proposing to conduct an independent investigation would be.” He added, “Right now, it’s a matter of first course, legal system play itself out in Pakistan, that’s the appropriate first step to take, and we think that’s the step that should be taken.” Miller further said that the US is ready to explore other options with the help of its lawmakers, including not recognizing the results of 8 February polls. He further congratulated the poll workers, journalists, civil society people, and the voters for their support in the concluded elections. He also recognized the restrictions on the internet services that were put forth by Pakistan and the negative impact they created on the electoral process. He said: “We condemn political and election-related violence and restrictions on internet and cell phone service; those negatively impacted the electoral service.” (“US wants Pakistan to probe election irregularities,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
Interim Prime Minister Kakar counters international criticism regarding elections
On 12 February, while addressing a press conference, the interim Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar countered the criticism put forth by the international community regarding the recently concluded elections and said that it is “not that big a deal.” Referring to calls for an investigation into election irregularities, he clarified that “We will do if it is required under the country’s laws.” He further asserted that peoples’ demands are important to the government and argued that the US’s comments should not be considered as ‘sacrosanct’ as they do not represent the government. He countered the allegations against the government for not being able to ensure a ‘level playing field’ for the parties. He questioned: “How can accusations of rigging be justified when the PTI-aligned faction constitutes the largest group in the assembly?” He further said that the electoral process has always been a subject of discussion irrespective of the arrangements taken by the government. (“Kakar brushes off foreign criticism on poll fairness,” The Express Tribune, 13 February 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn asserts that elections were a message from the people to the establishment
On 13 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Of the people” by Arifa Noor criticized the elections, which was characterized by delays and the failure of anyone to stand up for the rights of the unrepresented individuals following PTI’s resignation from the NA in 2022. The constant targeting of a party, which prevented it from campaigning and forced it “underground” in an attempt to evade arrests, showed that “no stone was left unturned to discourage the voters.” Noor pointed out the “(in)effective disinformation campaign” carried out by the media, which portrayed the PTI as a disintegrated party with no support or electables. This, coupled with the “unkindest cut” provided by the Supreme Court’s involvement which led to banning of the PTI’s symbol, paved the way for the conclusion that “PTI was toast!” The politicians, courts, string pullers, and media, who tried to tell the people that they had “no choice” in the decision of who would constitute the government, had “underestimated the people,” who not only cast their votes for a party but sent a “message to those who robbed them of their choice.” Noor took the example of Punjab and KP, where instead of voting for the PTI, the voters voted “against those who delayed elections” and created “an environment of fear.” She said that politicians on the ground misunderstood the silence of the people, and underestimated the voter turnout and the extent of support for the PTI. The editorial additionally described the votes as a protest against the “interference of the establishment.” Noor called on the establishment to rethink its current path, which was making it lose out on public support. She also urged the PPP, PML-N, and PTI to introspect why the election was a message to the parties from the people. The editorial concluded with Noor questioning whether there was hope yet for the establishment, or if the country was “bent upon proving” that it had learnt nothing from history. (Arifa Noor, “Of the people,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
“South Asian countries have been in the throes of the cancel malaise” laments an editorial in Dawn
On 13 February, Jawed Naqvi in an editorial in Dawn titled “Poll verdict slams cancel culture” highlighted that Pakistan’s voters condemned anti-democratic power centres that tried to “cancel political opponents,” as evidenced by their participation in recent elections despite threats and obstacles. This defiance signified a rejection of Pakistan’s “demeaning culture of political intolerance,” even snubbing “media pundits” who overstep their roles. Naqvi questioned whether a “similar turn of events” could take place in India in May, pointing to the “overwhelming need” for change amidst growing “cancel culture thriving” under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. The editorial explored historical instances of political canceling across South Asia, rooted in Cold War politics and foreign influences. He cited a Wikipedia release of diplomatic cables from Delhi, wherein BJP spokesman Arun Jaitley warned that “the Modi controversy continues to fester.” Naqvi pointed out how “Indian counterparts have faced challenges from the steady hollowing out of democracy.” Rajiv Gandhi was unable to return to power as he lost the support of Muslim and Hindu conservatives and opposed the refueling of US warplanes. Indira Gandhi lost public support because of her “messing with Sikh sentiments” and a “partisan” foreign policy, but has been described by the editorial as one of the first South Asian leaders to “cancel the opposition” through the 1975 emergency. Sri Lanka indulged in the practice of cancelling opponents as leaders “preferred to silence opponents than face them in democratic contests.” Naqvi concluded by expressing hope that the trend observed in Pakistan would pass on to “other troubled democracies” in the region. (Jawed Naqvi, “Poll verdict slams cancel culture,” Dawn, 13 January 2024)
 
ECONOMY
Pakistan stock exchange faces meltdown amid post-election uncertainty
On 12 February, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a significant downturn, with the benchmark KSE 100-share index dropping below 61,000 amid post-election political instability. Analysts attributed the panic selling to uncertainty in the political landscape and the lack of clarity on the circular debt resolution plan. The Head of Research at Arif Habib Ltd, Tahir Abbas, told Dawn that the market needed “clarity on government formation and key portfolios,” as well as the “economic roadmap of the new government.” Another researcher pointed out that the market would “remain under pressure” until it was clear who would form the coalition government. Value hunters engaged in selective buying at attractive levels, but split mandates and uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new coalition government weighed on investor sentiments. Heavy selling pressure was observed in key sectors such as oil and gas, contributing to the index’s decline. Moody’s rating concerns, political protests, and security unrest further exacerbated the bearish sentiment. (Muhammad Kashif, “Stocks fall like ninepins on instability,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
Low remittances and FDI in the first half of FY24 raise concerns
On 12 February, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) published data as per which there was an increase in workers’ remittances year-on-year (YoY) in January 2024 by 26.2 per cent, but in the first seven months of FY24, overall inflows were down by three per cent. In January 2024, Pakistan received USD 2.397 billion in remittances, while in January 2023, it received USD 1.9 billion. However, FY23 was held as a lost year as remittances fell by USD four billion, which the government has claimed was due to the illegal currency business. From July to January in FY24, Pakistan received USD 15.832 billion, but in the same period in FY23, it received USD16.317 billion, indicating a USD 435 million decline. The highest remittances were from Saudi Arabia (USD 3.841 billion), followed by the UK (USD 2.35 billion) and the US (USD 1.859 billion). Remittances from the UAE reduced by five per cent, while remittances from the European Union (USD 1.985 billion) exceeded that of GCC countries for the first time. Currency experts underlined the need to identify and resolve the reasons behind this decline as the economy’s external account is more dependent on remittances than exports. There was also a fall in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the first half of FY24, during which Pakistan received only USD 862 million, the lowest in the region. If the issues with the remittances and the FDI are not solved soon, the exchange rate could potentially be destabilized. (Shahid Iqbal, “Remittances jump by 26pc in January,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
Economist highlights the poor economic state of a “bankrupt” Pakistan
On 12 February, a prominent Pakistani-American economist, Atif Mian, said that the new government would be faced with a challenging economic revival, and highlighted the need for them to outline their priorities. Mian painted a bleak picture of the state of Pakistan’s economy that has “consistently fallen behind globally,” with inflation, growth, debt, and investment “flashing red.” He pointed out that since the tax revenue was used to pay provinces, pensions, and interest on debt, the “federal government has no money” and is thus in deficit. Mian also justified the frustration of the people, considering that Pakistan is “sinking deeper every year” as its dependency on international actors has increased, resulting in people “wanting to leave” and firms being unwilling to invest. When speaking about the elections, Milei condemned the establishment for playing its “usual games” and not addressing the economic challenges, adding that any plan that the future government may “magically” have would be futile as the establishment has “lost all trust with their people.” (Anwar Iqbal, “Economist Atif Mian urges next government to outline priorities,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
Post-election uncertainty and coalition government spell “potential trouble” for Pakistan’s economy, says Dawn editorial
On 12 February, an editorial in Dawn by Afshan Subohi titled “Fragmented mandate may lead to economic uncertainty” linked the election results to “profound disillusionment among Pakistanis,” indicating a resistance to any interference with their “democratic mandate.” The “fragmented mandate” is expected to lead to the formation of a coalition government, inevitably resulting in uncertainty that will overshadow the market and business. Subohi highlighted that given the fact that Pakistan is at a “critical juncture” due to its weak economy, a coalition government “spells potential trouble.” The editorial took the example of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) index facing a “sharp decline” one day after elections, reflecting “sentiments of the business community.” Subohi quoted a leader of Quetta Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Badruddin Kakar, who asserted that Pakistan could not “afford the luxury of dwelling in despair,” and needed its leaders to address critical economic issues such as “fostering industrial growth” and creating employment. Subohi also cited the CEO of Pakistan Business Council, Ehsan Malik, who underlined the importance of securing a “substantial, extended and more reform-centric” deal with the IMF, as the existing one will conclude in March 2023. Malik added that “procrastination” would have “costly” implications, which is why controlling inflation and increasing direct cash transfers are “key” expectations from the new government. Subohi mentioned remarks by a few more people, including a prominent businessman who predicted that the coalition government would prioritize securing an IMF deal, and a politician who held that the nation should appreciate the ECP and caretaker government. (Afshan Subohi, “Fragmented mandate may lead to economic uncertainty,” Dawn, 12 February 2024)

“Imran Khan makes it clear while speaking to reporters inside the prison that he and his party would not be sitting with PPP, PMLN and MQM -- Hints clearly that he will opt to sit in opposition.” -Anas Mallik “People with self respect and integrity are going to slowly diminish which is another blow to the already deplorable state of affairs in #Pakistan’s political arena.” -Zunaira Azer “Within PPP and PMLN, Nawaz Sharif stands out as the most capable leader to helm the government as Prime Minister.” - Moshin Rasheed

“The vote is not just for a party but also a message to those who robbed the voters of their choice.” - An opinion in Dawn, ‘of the people’